The Strength of the Euro Bespeaks Normalcy for the E.U.

As 2018 was beginning its climb in the northern hemisphere toward eventually warmer days, the prospect for the E.U. through and after the secession of one of its largest states was perhaps brighter than commonly thought at the time. When the days are short, it is perhaps all too easy to be pessimistic. Signs of strength in the euro implicitly sent the message in January  of 2018 that the E.U. would be just fine without its foremost euro-skeptic state.

The first month of 2018 witnessed negative interest rates both for the euro and the yen, and stronger economic growth for the E.U. and Japan. Interestingly, however, the two currencies were heading in opposite directions as markets protected that interest rates would rise quicker in the E.U. than in Japan. In 2017, the euro had rallied by 14% against the dollar, while the yen had been up by only 2 percent. Against a bloc of trade-weighted international currencies, the yen had actually declined.[1]

The normalization of the E.U.’s context, and the E.U. itself, even as a large state was in the midst of seceding from the Union, can be inferred from the euro’s relative strength. “What we clearly have is that the expectation for normalization is giving the euro a boost, and that’s part of what’s moving the currency,” said Andreas Koenig of Amundi. Normalization is not a word that most Europeans would have probably been using at the time. Britain was still holding that it could avoid a hard border in Ireland and yet leave the single market and the customs union, as well as have diverging regulations. At the federal level was the expectation that the state’s intent on ending the free movement of E.U. citizens in and out of an independent Britain as no longer being subject to the ECJ, the E.U.’s Supreme Court would “point to a free-trade agreement little more comprehensive than those with South Korea or Canada.”[2] With the E.U. and one of its states holding such divergent expectations still in the dawn of 2018, normalcy is a word that people then likely were not applying for the E.U. for the year and indeed the next several to come.

Yet the secession of a state whose government had not only resisted transferring more governmental sovereignty to the federal level, but also wanted some back and even viewed the E.U. itself eschew as a network or mere trading “bloc,” could even then be reckoned as a good thing for the Union because a stronger, more internally aligned one would come out without even such a large state at the UK. For a house divided cannot long stand, and at the very least the vast majority of any political society, even a federal one, should agree on the basics of what the society is.

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[1] Mike Bird, “Euro and Yen Tell Different Tales on Negative Rates,” The Wall Street Journal, January 22, 2018.

[2] “Now for the Difficult Bit,” The Economist, January 13, 2018.

Young Japanese: An Early Verdict on Climate Change

Is the verdict in, and have we, mankind, lost our own self-inflicted climate battle? Is this what Japanese millennials were saying in 2016 when, according to a government survey, only 75 percent expressed interest in climate change, whereas close to 90 percent of the same age group (18-29) had expressed interest just a few years earlier?[1] Their intuition may have been the proverbial canary in the coal mine.

Midori Aoyagi, a principal researcher at the National Institute for Environmental Studies in Japan, reports that the young people in her focus groups “always felt a kind of hopelessness” toward their daily lives, their jobs, and social issues.[2] She suggests the pessimism might be “a result of having grown up during a prolonged period of economic stagnation known as the lost decades,” but this would not account for the drop from 90% to 75% in just a few years.[3] Interviews with Japanese aged 22 to 26 elicited a similar attitude. “These young people cited the huge scale and timeline of the problem, a feeling of powerlessness, silence from the media and preoccupation with more important issues.”[4] I want to unpack this revealing piece of evidence.

The huge scale and silence of the media, combined with the political power of the extant energy sector, whose financial benefits are grounded in the status quo, suggests that nothing short of sustained effort aimed at transitioning to clean energy could possibly suffice to obviate the worst of climate change in the decades to come. Not sensing such effort, as per the silence of the media, the young people may have intuited that their time would be more usefully spent on other societal problems, which still had a chance of being solved. To be sure, unforeseen technological developments could at least in theory still redeem the species in spite of its self-destructive urge for instant gratification. Yet without a hint of promise from the species' unique tool-making ability, the young people could not but sense a slipping away of the window for solving the climate-change problem. Indeed, because they could live to see the worst of climate change as it unfolds, the sense of hopelessness makes sense. So it is particularly telling for the rest of us that more of them were moving on to tackle other, more solvable societal problems.

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[1] Tatiana Schlossberg, “Japan Is Obsessed with Climate Change. Young People Don’t Get It,” The New York Times, December 5, 2016.

[2] Ibid.

[3] Ibid.

[4] Ibid.

The Bank of Japan’s Quantitative Easing: An Unnatural Imbalance

On October 31, 2014, the Bank of Japan made public its policy of buying larger amounts of government debt—80 trillion yen ($734 billion) a year—so as to stimulate the economy.[1] The Nikkei 225-stock index average rose almost 5 percent that day, while the yen fell to its lowest level against the dollar since the preceding month. In effect, investors and analysts were factoring in the likely stimulatory impact on the economy and the inflationary implication of more yen relative even to the expanded output, respectively. Put another way, the lower yen suggests that any strengthening of the currency from higher economic output would be more than countered by the weakening impact of inflation. Interestingly, not even the likely boost to exports from the cheaper yen was expected by the market participants to give the stimulus the edge in pushing the currency higher rather than lower.

 

I submit that the central bank’s strategy is suboptimal in terms of the mission to stabilize the currency on account of the risk of an inflationary spiral. The imprudence, or imbalance in favor of stimulus, stems from another imbalance wherein exaggerated fears of deflation are allowed to eclipse the common-sense notion that periods of deflation naturally go alone with there being periods of inflation. The problematic mentality, I contend, can be understood in terms of a wave function wherein only the half of each wave above the base line are permitted. Such a policy goes against the nature of a wave function to spend as much time below the line as above it. In monetary terms, price stability is thwarted in favor of an inflationary bias.

 

I suspect the root of the problem involves a failure to distinguish between moderate, or cyclical deflation and the severe, ruinous kind. The lack of balance involved in resolutely shutting off even low deflation after years of inflation can resonate into an economy being out of balance. That is to say, the imbalance can expand like a ripple in a pond—a ripple being of course a natural wave function of ups and downs rather than only ups. Perhaps applying principles of natural science to macroeconomics might help central bankers in their task to maintain price stability.

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[1] Jonathan Soble, “Japan’s Central Bank Unexpectedly Moves to Stimulate Economy,” The New York Times, October 31, 2014.

An Ethical Meltdown in Japan: On the Toxicity of Tepco's Nuclear Power

Without doubt, Japan’s largest power provider, Tokyo Electric Power Co. (Tepco), faced the biggest challenge of its 50-year-history in "recovering from the damage done to its nuclear facilities and power systems by a devastating earthquake and tsunami" in 2011.[1] The New York Times reported that "foreign nuclear experts, the Japanese press and an increasingly angry and rattled Japanese public are frustrated by government and power company officials’ failure to communicate clearly and promptly about the nuclear crisis. Pointing to conflicting reports, ambiguous language and a constant refusal to confirm the most basic facts, they suspect officials of withholding or fudging crucial information about the risks posed by the ravaged Daiichi plant."[2]

When a spokesperson for Tepco said early in the morning on March 16th "that a fire had broken out at the Daiichi plant’s No. 4 reactor, a reporter naturally asked how the fire had begun, given that just the day before the company had reported putting out a fire at that same reactor. The executive’s answer: ‘We’ll check. . . . We don’t have information here,’ he explained. After about two hours, the Tepco representative had the information: Turned out the smoke was coming not from reactor No. 4, but from reactor No. 3. If Tepco’s information had been delayed and vague, the reporters’ response was quick and direct. ‘You guys have been saying something different each time!’ one shouted. ‘Don’t tell us things from your impression or thoughts, just tell us what’s going on. Your unclear answers are really confusing!’"[3]

The full essay is in Cases of Unethical Business, available in print and as an ebook at Amazon.com.