Is Modest Growth vs. Full Employment a False Dichotomy?

As Summer slid into Autumn in 2012, the Chinese government was giving no hint of any ensuing economic stimulus program. This was more than slightly unnerving for some, as a recent manufacturing survey had slumped more than expected, to 49.2 in August. A score of 50 separated expansion from contraction. A similar survey, by HSBC, came in at 47.6, down from 49.3 the previous month. Bloomberg suggested that China might face a recession in the third quarter. So why no stimulus announcement?  Was the Chinese government really just one giant tease? I submit that the false dichotomy of moderate economic growth and full employment was in play. In short, the Chinese government did not want to over-heat even a stagnant economy even though the assumption was that full employment would thus not be realizable.

Wang Tao, an economist at UBS, explained the “very reactionary, cautious approach” as being motivated by the desire to avoid repeating the “excesses of last time.”[1] The stimulus policy in the wake of the 2008 global downturn had sparked inflation and caused a housing bubble in China. According to The New York Times, China was avoiding “measures that could reignite another investment binge of the sort that sent prices for property and other assets soaring in 2009 and 2010.”[2] A repeat of any such binge could not be good, for it can spark the sort of irrational excitement that have a life of its own.
In short, too much stimulus in an economy can cause inflation and put people’s homes at risk of foreclosure once the housing bubble bursts, whereas a lack of stimulus means that a moderate growth rate is likely, rather one that could give rise to full employment. Is there no way out of this trade-off? 
Keeping fiscal or monetary stimulus within projections of a moderate growth can occur with more government spending targeted to a combination of giving private employers a financial incentive to hire more people and increasing the number of people hired by state enterprises. In principle with the Full Employment Act of the U.S. in 1946, a government can see that anyone who wants a job has one, while still maintaining a moderate stimulus. A modest growth-rate can co-exist with full employment. 

1, Bettina Wassener, “As Growth Flags, China Shies From Stimulus,” The New York Times, September 3, 2012. 
2. Ibid.

The Spanish Recovery: On the Roles of Budget Constraints and Exports

In 2007, the E.U. state of Spain “was hopelessly addicted to a credit-fueled construction boom that produced a shattering bust, leaving banks collapsing in the face of bad loans.”[1] A decade later, the state’s economy was “expanding at around 3 percent” over the previous year, “producing goods for export, generating jobs,” and pointing to possible E.U.-wide economic recovery.[2] The Spanish economy had returned to its pre-crisis size, according to the state’s government, yet the economy had not yet solidified a firm foundation and unemployment was still stubbornly high.

Although the credit-based building boom was doubtlessly not sustainable and fraught with risk, the ensuing budget austerity mandated at the federal level inhibited the state’s government from spending more money “on infrastructure projects to generate jobs.”[3] Contracting government spending exacerbates rather than ameliorates an economic downturn, even if deficits go up. The federal law on state deficits being at or below 3.5% of a state’s GDP did not have enough flexibility for the Spanish government to be able to minimize the period of the downturn. 

Hence, The New York Times concluded at the time of the recovery, “Spain’s resurgence is less cause for celebration than a grim reminder of how long it took.”[4] That is to say, the steep unemployment level, which had reached 25 percent, need not have endured as long as it did. Even in 2017, the unemployment rate remained above 18 percent (near 39 percent for the state’s youth).[5] 

It is difficult, therefore, to see even a return to the size of the economy before the debt-crisis as a recovery. To be sure, exports had grown “to close to one-third from about one-fourth of the economy,” and such an economic engine is clearly more stable than an over-leveraged construction-led economy.[6] An economy fueled by consumption-buying from within would be more stable still, however, and the stubbornly high unemployment rate attests to why such a solid foundation had not yet materialized. Even though the large SEAT auto-factory put €3.3 billion (about $3.8 billion) of new machinery into the operations, relying on one company for the surge in exports is not as solid as a diversified export-base.

To be sure, the increasing tax revenue in the state, albeit very modestly, enabled more money to flow back into the economy. Work on the long-planned expansion of the Barcelona subway system, a €6.8 billion project, had resumed. Yet such an infusion was needed especially during the crisis and in the ensuing years of extremely high unemployment.  The inflexible federal strictures of budget discipline did not allow for such counter-cyclical measures even in a rather extreme cyclical downturn.

Related: See Essays on the E.U. Political Economy, available in print and as an ebook at Amazon.com.

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[1] Peter S. Goodman, “Spain’s Long Economic Nightmare Is Finally Over,” The New York Times, July 28, 2017.

[2] Ibid.

[3] Ibid.

[4] Ibid.

[5] Ibid.

[6] Ibid.

Anti-Austerity in Greek Government

The Socialists and then the New Democracy Party told Greeks that sacrifices were necessary to avert default on the state’s debt. This position came at a high political cost on May 6, 2012, when both parties lost seats in the state’s legislative election. “The established parties collapsed — they had too much pressure from Berlin and Brussels and the I.M.F.,” said Nikos Xydakis, an newspaper editor and a political commentator, referring to Greece’s foreign lenders.[1] In other words, the leaders of the two mainstream Greek parties sold out their compatriots, having caved in to ultimatums from Merkel operating at the E.U. level. “In a meeting with President Karolos Papoulias, the leader of the leftist party, Alexis Tsipras, ridiculed the leaders of the two main parties whose coalition lost its majority in the parliamentary elections.”[2] Tsipras added that his party would not be forming a government with either party. The New Democracy Party had been unable to form a government in the wake of the election, so it was then Tsipras’ turn to try.

Alexis Tsipras  and Greek President Papoulias   NYT/Kostas Tsironis

The full essay is in Essays on the E.U. Political Economy, available in print and as an ebook at Amazon.

1.. Rachel Donadio and Niki Kitsantonis, “Greek Leftists Rule Out Coalition with Incumbents,” The New York Times, May 8, 2012.
2. Ibid.

Merkel’s Fiscal Box in the E.U. Debt Crisis

Germany was ruling out any substantive shift in its approach to Europe's debt crisis despite a rising chorus of opposition to Berlin's austerity policies that reached a crescendo in the elections in Greece and France on May 6, 2012. On the following day, Merkel “rejected the notion that Europe was on the brink of a major policy shift after Socialist Francois Hollande defeated her fellow conservative Nicolas Sarkozy and Greek voters punished ruling parties who slashed spending to secure a foreign bailout. . . . Merkel herself made clear that, while there was scope to discuss tactics, the overall strategy EU leaders committed to by agreeing a compact on fiscal consolidation was ‘not negotiable.’”[1] That seems a bit presumptuous, considering that the “fiscal pact” had yet to be ratified in enough of the states to go into effect.

The full essay is in Essays on the E.U. Political Economy, available in print and as an ebook at Amazon.

1. Noah Barkin and Stephen Brown, “Germany Austerity Policies: Berlin Unmoved by Votes in France, Germany,” The Huffington Post, May 7, 2012.