E.U. Defense: The State Governments Exploit a Conflict of Interest

Sometimes lemons can make use of political gravity to become lemonade. Of course, behind the lemons are human beings, who are of course innately economizers, political actors and moral agents. When accosted by proposals that additional governmental sovereignty be delegated from state governments to the federal level, state-government officials feeling the gravitas of narrow self-interest are inclined to resist even if the transfer is in the political and economic interest of the union as well as all of its states. I am of course describing a drawback that goes with state governments having too much power in a federal system, whose interests are not always identical with those of a particular state or even those that pertain to the state level as distinct from the federal level. I submit that a federal system in which such dynamics are ignored in favor of focusing on particular issues, such as the E.U.’s increased need for defense given Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, can gradually slip “off the rails” toward dissolution or consolidation. By ceding the E.U. itself (i.e., the federal level) additional authority, including for revenues and expenditures, the European Council, which is composed of the state governors, could “kill two birds with one stone,” as that saying goes. Those birds would be unbalanced state power in the E.U. at the expense of a common purpose, and Russian President Putin’s military adventurism in Eastern Europe.

One casualty of excessive state power in a federal system is accountability that the federal institutions could exercise on state governments whose officials willfully violate federal laws and regulations. Those officials, I submit, are all too acclimated to turning the “lemon” of being held accountable in the federal system into “lemonade” by turning a proposal made by a branch of government at the federal level for more authority at the expense of the power of the state governments (and thus of their respective officials!) into a proposal to suspend the federal measure of accountability on the state governments. In short, the state governors would be saying to the federal officials: You want more federal power? We reject that and will exercise the requested power ourselves and we need you to waive a federal constraint, which some of us have been violating, in order for us to exercise the power. I contend that this is how the following can (and should) be interpreted and understood.

On February 14, 2025, the President of the E.U.’s executive branch, the Commission—a name that seems more imposing than The White House—announced that she would “propose to activate the escape clause in the [union’s] fiscal rules in a bid to ‘substantially’ boost member states’ defense investment.”[1] Alternatively, the federal president could have carried through with her earlier proposal to increase the E.U.’s own authority in defense, thus enabling the union to benefit in terms of security from collective action instead of each state doing its own thing. Arguably, such collective action would be necessary should the U.S. back off from defending the E.U. against potential and actualized threats from Russia.

From the perspective of a governor of a state in the E.U., the benefits from going beyond coordinating to pool military defense at the federal level are less important than gutting the federal requirement (in the Stability and Growth Pact, which is really a federal law rather than a pact) that state fiscal deficits be “under 3% of GDP and debt under 60% of GDP” of a given state.[2]  Seeking to obviate the Commission’s Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP), which includes penalties, including fines, on violators, the governors meeting in the European Council had only weeks earlier stated a preference for putting the EDP on ice so the states could increase their defense spending (and not have to pay fines) instead of enhancing the Commission’s defense competency (i.e., enumerated power) at the expense of the remaining sovereignty that the states still had.

Eight states—Belgium, France, Hungary, Italy, Malta, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia—were in violation of the limits on deficits and/or debt. It is no coincidence that the governments of the E.U. states of Poland, Italy, Greece and the Baltic states had been requesting that the Commission review the required limits on state deficits and debt. It also no coincidence that at the “informal” session of the European Council held only weeks earlier, the state officials considered lifting the required limits to be “among the least controversial options on the table.”[3] Waiving being held accountable is of course not controversial for the people who would otherwise be held accountable. Relative to the Council, the power of the Commission and the Parliament individually and even combined was insufficient to object, citing both a federal system’s need that state governments be held accountable when they violate federal law and regulations and the defense-benefits from the collective action in energizing the E.U. competency on defense.

Put another way, to the E.U. state governors, removing the federal constraint on state spending that is not covered by tax revenue and resisting the delegation of additional governmental sovereignty to the federal government are more important—both for self-interested reasons—than strengthening both the union’s federal system, such that the federal level could effectively hold violating state governments accountable and thus make federal law real rather than mere parchment, and the union’s ability to stand up militarily as a unit rather than conglomeration to Putin, especially as the U.S. was sending clear signals of a desire to pull back from defending Europe from Russia. The triumph of narrow, private-benefit-delimited—self-interest over the good of the whole—in this case, Europe—and the related (i.e., not coincidental!) political weakness of federal officials to be a check on the exploitation of the conflict of interest at the state level are themselves (and especially together!) internal threats to the viability of the European Union. Lest the threat be presumed to be solely external, from Russia being militarily in the Ukraine, E.U. citizens could have done worse than exchange their binoculars for microscopes, at least for a while.  

1. Alice Tidey, “EU Commission to Activate Fiscal Escape Clause to Boost Defence Spending,” Euronews.com, February 14, 2025.
2. Ibid.
3. Ibid.

On the U.S. Government’s Budget Deficits and Debt: American Democracy Unhinged

It is true that a government’s budget can be read as a blueprint of priorities in terms of what is valued, and what is not so highly valued. The blueprint itself, as a whole, also evinces a priority in terms of values. As the big-ticket items, such as large spending categories and massive tax-cuts, get the most attention, whether a budget is in balance can go by the wayside, and what that says about the electorate (and thus the state of democracy) can easily be missed. Ultimately, public policy and even the votes of the elected representatives point back to the popular sovereign, the People—more specifically, the electorate, and its values. By 2024, the deficit and accumulated debt of the U.S. Government had reached such gigantic numbers that something could be said to be amiss concerning those values. The underlying culprit, which can be said to be an illness that is human, all too human, had by then infected American democracy beyond the wherewithal of virtually any elected federal representative to enunciate well enough that the electorate could look clearly at itself, and thus size itself up beyond the partial diagnoses that can be found in partisan attacks.

In late June, 2024, the (nonpartisan) Congressional Budget Office forecasted a $2 trillion deficit for the year, up from an earlier estimate of $1.6 trillion.[1] At the time, the federal accumulated debt stood at $34 trillion. Whereas in the 1970s, the debt as a percent of GNP was in the low 30s, the percentage for 2023 stood at just over 120 percent. Clearly, the trajectory of deficits and debt was disproportionate even on a percentage basis. Furthermore, interest payments made by the U.S. Government, which the CBO director said were “large by historical standards,”[2] were poised to exceed the entire defense budget in 2024; and that recipients of interest-bearing bonds tend to be on the wealthy side, whereas the poor and middle-class pay taxes, the ballooning debt could be viewed as an engine of wealth-transfer from the poor to the rich via the U.S. Government, hence increasing economic inequality as an indirect effect of fiscal public policy. In short, something systemic was out of balance, with ethical implications.

Blaming large ticket items (i.e., federal spending) provides us with an easy target but only gets at a symptom. Regarding the 2024 fiscal year, the Congressional Budget Office pointed to the $145 billion cost of the President’s changes to student loans and the $95 billion foreign aid for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan enacted in April as the two largest factors.[3] Almost a trillion dollars for three countries. Healthcare costs came in third.

To be sure, the changes in student-loan policy under President Biden were in large part due to the spurious vocational claims of for-profit “universities and feckless accrediting agencies, with unemployed former students as the victims. The foreign-aid spending was associated with foreign policy objectives—holding back Russia and sending a message that military aggression (by Russia) is no longer acceptable in the 21^st century being foremost. In short, both deficit-growing factors were oriented to protecting victims, and thus could be justified ethically. Increased public health-insurance costs too can be justified ethically, given the value of health irrespective of income and wealth.

Even lofty goals come with costs, however, which may not be affordable. A sovereign government with the authority to “print money” need not be constrained by what it can afford, absent constitutional language mandating a balanced budget. Of course, spending is only half of the deficit equation; taxation being the other. That spending had been outstripping revenue since the Clinton administration can be traced back to the Reagan tax cuts. Regarding the deficit in 2024, the Trump tax cuts should also be remembered. Moreover, the refusal of Congresses and presidents to raise taxes to cover increases in spending when the economy is fine or (especially) good is also a factor in how the U.S. Government’s debt got to $34 trillion.

Both the proclivity to increase government spending and the reluctance to increase taxes (or defeat tax-cut proposals) leads us directly “under the hood” to popular sovereignty: Government by the People. That is to say, the American electorate is ultimately to blame for not electing representatives, senators, and presidents who resist the twin temptations. To be sure, differing political ideologies on the proper size of government, and, more specifically, the federal government, are also legitimate in voting decisions.

A believer in a small federal government, harkening back to Thomas Jefferson, might vote for candidates in favor of tax cuts in order to “starve” the federal government. But this strategy ignores the unlimited ability of that government to enact spending bills. A “small government” ideology should go after spending and taxes with enough tax revenue over spending in the out years to pay off the accumulated debt.

A believer in a large federal government (in absolute terms and relative to those of the states) has no problem resisting tax-cut proposals; it is the notion that a government can or should grow by increased spending, especially without increased taxation to cover both the additional spending and to pay off the accumulated debt, that is problematic.

In the 1980s and early 1990s, the U.S. deficits (and debt) were significant in political discourse. David Stockton, President Reagan’s head of the OMB (Office of Management and Budget), wrote The Triumph of Politics to explain why Reagan failed to bring down the deficit numbers. The imbalance was in the public’s aversion to cutting domestic spending, Reagan’s increase in defense spending, and the president’s tax-cuts. In terms of the American electorate, the desire for immediate consumption, which includes tax-cuts, combined with the lack of responsibility can be cited as the ultimate source of the imbalance that may be inherent in democracy itself.

It is significant that Thomas Jefferson and John Adams agreed long after they were out of the political arena that a viable republic requires an educated and virtuous citizenry. Put another way, self-government requires a sense of responsibility in terms of fiscal governance. That the debt of the U.S. Government had been allowed to reach $34 trillion by 2024 can be interpreted as a verdict, or an x-ray, on just how fit the American electorate had been to govern itself through its chosen representatives. The real threat to American democracy lies within. The threat, in fact, by 2024 may have become much more serious than even that of unbalanced fiscal policy.  For the proverbial invisible “elephant in the room” may no longer have merely been the failure of the American electorate to exercise its popular sovereignty with fiscal responsibility on governmental taxation and spending: the rising unexamined question may ironically have already relegated fiscal responsibility altogether in silently asking whether $34 trillion ever gets paid off. Like an insect whose legs are still twitching even though it is already dead, the U.S. Government may have already been effectively bankrupt without anyone realizing it. If this was already de facto the case by 2024, then the damning verdict, not seen yet in plain sight, would be on another level entirely. 

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1. Jennifer Scholtes, “$2T in Red Ink: Foreign Aid, Biden’s Student Loan Policies Hike U.S. Deficit Forecast,” Politico, June 18, 2024 (accessed June 22, 2024).
2. Ibid.
3. Ibid.

Limits to Overused Fiscal and Monetary Policy Can Result in Self-Induced Governmental Impotence

“The [U.S.] federal budget deficit is growing faster than expected as President Trump’s spending and tax cut policies force the United States to borrow increasing sums of money.”[1] This observation was made just after the Federal Reserve Bank relented under pressure from the White House to lower interest rates because bond investors had been investing with a possible future recession in mind. With the U.S. Government’s accumulated debt standing at $22.4 trillion and interest rates already low, the limits to both fiscal and monetary policy were apparent even if most Americans in the political and business elite were focused on avoiding a possible recession in 2020.

According to the Congressional Budget Office in August, 2019, the federal deficit for fiscal 2019 would reach $960 billion; the deficit for the next year would reach $1 trillion.[2] Back during the Reagan administration in the 1980’s, deficits were in the hundreds of billions and the debt was in the trillions. It would seem that the fiscal imbalance had gotten worse since then, in spite of the fact that recessionary periods were greatly outweighed by stretches of growth. In fact, the U.S. in 2019 was in its longest period of economic expansion. Yet the deficits and thus debt rose rather than dropped. President’s tax cuts in that period of expansion played a significant role. Tax revenues for 2018 and 2019 fell more than $430 billion short of what the Congressional Budget Office had predicted.[3] In August of 2019, the president made public his consideration of payroll tax cuts just to guard against a possible recession (especially if one should hit before the next election day).

Using recessionary fiscal tools during an economic expansion means the deficits in good times won’t counter those in bad times. The result in the case of the U.S. has been a steadily increasing accumulated debt, rather than a debt from bad times being paid off in good times. That’s the fiscal theory, but it ignores the insatiable desire for instant gratification in human nature that can easily find power in a representative democracy. Accordingly, the use of leverage, or debt, by a democratic government should be extremely limited; tax cuts during periods of expansion can be seen as a red flag that a government has already gone too far.

Fortunately, lower than expected interest rates even before the Fed’s announced rate cut in August, 2019, reduced the amount of money the U.S. Treasury had to pay to its borrowers. So the public as well as policy makers could conveniently overlook the fact that the projected deficit for fiscal year 2019 was 25% higher than the prior year’s deficit. One weakness of a democracy is that if things look ok on the surface, needed work on the fundamentals—the substratum—will likely be put off. It’s more understandable that the electorate would have this weakness—less so for the elected representatives who know or should know the fundamentals and look out for the fiscal balance of the government. Speaking of balance, it is interesting that the federal system too was so much out of balance with the federal level holding most of the governmental power even though the States technically still had residual sovereignty. In other words, the tremendous fiscal imbalance can be viewed as an indication or manifestation of a more fundamental imbalance in the U.S. system of governments. In contrast, the E.U. suffered from an imbalance in the other direction, as the state governments anxiously guarded most of their powers.

See: Skip Worden, Essays on Two Federal Empires. Available at Amazon.

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1. Jim Tankersley and Emily Cochrane, “Budget Deficit Is Set to Surge Past $1 Trillion,” The New York Times, August 22, 2019.

2. Ibid.

3. Ibid.

Anticipating a Recession: Economic and Political Indicators in the E.U.

Anticipation in August, 2019, at least among bond purchasers on Wall Street, of an impending recession in 2020 had at least in part to do with the E.U. In particular, a large state, Germany, had a disappointing second quarter in terms of contracting economic output, and the increasing prospect of Britain seceding from the Union was thought to result in the E.U. economy turning recessionary. I contend that both of these baleful indicators were over-emphasized. Additionally, adding the increasing political polarization in the E.U. as another contributor to an upcoming recession would be too much.

Germany’s economy contracted just 0.1% from the 0.4% growth rate of the first quarter.[1] Placing such emphasis on a change from 0.4 to 0.3 might strike some people as being petty. Yet Carsten Brzeski, chief economist in Germany of the Dutch bank ING said at the time, “Today’s GDP report definitely marks the end of a golden decade for the German economy.”[2] A 0.1% change ends a golden decade. How fragile golden decades must be!

To be sure, “industrial output for June dropped over 5% compared to the previous year. And the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment for August plunged sharply, hitting its lowest level since December 2011.”[3] Brzeski pointed to increased uncertainty from a large state seceding from the E.U. and the U.S.-China trade negotiations as the main culprit. Whereas the British economy would likely be negatively affected in the scenario of secession without coordination, the argument that the E.U. economy would contract as a result is more tenuous. Even if the British economy of a fully sovereign U.K. were to falter, the E.U. economy, being, like that of the U.S., made up of state economies, would hopefully be able to absorb interruptions in trade with Britain. Moreover, the empire-scale of the E.U. (and U.S.) is, as a cluster, much larger than the state-scale of political entities within the empire-scale union.[4]  Baleful economic predictions in 2019 for the E.U. post-secession may have been exaggerated in part due to conflating the two political scales. References to Britain’s “divorce” from the E.U. serve as perfect examples of the category-mistake. No, Virginia, the U.K. is not another E.U.; rather, pre-secession Britain was/is a political sub-unit in the E.U., whose laws and court (ECJ) trump(ed) British law and courts.

The pre-secession trend of business moving from the state of the U.K. to other states may suggest that the E.U. economy would actually benefit from a “no deal” secession. Furthermore, the E.U. trades with other countries, so disruption in trade with a former state could be viewed relatively and thus seen as less baleful for the Union than some economic forecasters were predicting in 2019.

More crucial to the E.U., and less to its economy, were “insurgent movements from the anticapitalist far-left to the nativist far-right,” which have “made inroads” amid “eroding public confidence in mainstream conservative and social-democratic parties that for decades” had dominated at the state level.[5] Although it is tempting to label all this as political instability, the political institutions have funneled even parties like the 5 Star party, which came out of anti-corruption protests, into the nitty-gritty of coalition talks.

Even the political tensions in 2018 between the state government of Italy and the federal E.U. level, which “upset investors in Italian bonds and banks, hurting the flow of credit,” and the collapse of the governing coalition in 2019, which drive some investors into bonds, were not economic crises for the E.U. economy as a whole. Politically, however, Matteo Salvini of the League Party in Italy, could already be viewed as potentially damaging the E.U. federal system. He “challenged” the E.U. law on fiscal discipline for state governments, accusing the states of Germany and France of hypocritically getting away with exceeding the limits on state debt and deficits while the E.U. imposed austerity on the Italian government. His complaint was valid enough. On August 20, 2019, he repeated he would defy federal authorities on the tax-increase (rather than a decrease!) part of the austerity fiscal-discipline federal mandate.

In the early 1830’s, U.S. President Andrew Jackson was forced to deal with South Carolina’s Nullification Acts, which stipulated that the state government could defy federal law regarding laws that the state deems are detrimental to South Carolina. Jackson was aware that a federal system in which governmental sovereignty is split, as in the U.S. and E.U., cannot long survive when even just one state government can decide to defy federal law. So the political uncertainty regarding the growing power of the political extremes in the E.U. has primarily political implications. To put the economics before the political in such a case represents yet another over-statement of the economic. Politics does not reduce to economics. Although the former can obviously affect the latter, one of the domains should not be put foremost in the domain of the other. My thinking on political uncertainty is that its economic effects tend to be overstated. Even in political terms, political institutions have shown a remarkable ability to funnel, or normalize, what was once raw political conflict.

Related: Skip Worden, Essays on the E.U. Political Economy: Federalism and the Debt Crisis. Available at Amazon.

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[1] Julia Horowitz, “German Economy Shrinks as ‘Golden Decade’ Comes to an End,” CNN.com, August 14, 2019.

[2] Ibid.

[3] Ibid.

[4] Skip Worden, British Colonies Forge an American Empire: A Basis for Trans-Atlantic Comparisons. Available at Amazon.

[5] Marcus Walker, “Italy’s Government Collapse Sets Up a Power Struggle,” The Wall Street Journal, August 21, 2019.

Is Democracy Inimical to Prudent Government Budgeting: The U.S. and India Contrasted

At a time when the U.S. Government sported an accumulated debt of roughly $20 trillion, with continued deficits expected to add about $10 trillion more over the next ten years, the most populous democracy in the world, India, laid out a prudent budget proposal—one that had been “extremely well thought-out,” according to Deepak Parekh of the Housing Development Finance Corporation in India.[1]

On February 1, 2017, the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi made public its budget proposal for the following year. Even as the proposed budget “would significantly increase spending on infrastructure, rural areas and antipoverty programs,” the government’s annual deficit would be reduced to 3.2 percent of GDP from 3.5 percent in the current fiscal year.[2] The budget “included tax cuts for lower income taxpayers and small business, even as it came close to sticking with the country’s target for reducing the budget deficit.”[3] In a democratic system, in which popular pressure is even in theory for increased government spending and lower taxes, increasing discretionary spending need not come at the expense of fiscal discipline. “The economy needs the spending to give consumption a boost, but the government is also giving weight to fiscal prudence,” said Dharmakirti Joshi, chief economist at Crisil, an Indian credit-rating agency.[4] The proposal even adds spending on infrastructure such as roads in rural areas—an investment favorable to attracting foreign direct investment as the stated aim is to increase “efficiency and access to markets while providing jobs.”[5]

Modi’s action against currency on which taxes are not paid in banning the largest currency notes in November, 2016 had led the I.M.F. to cut its predicted growth rate for India by one percentage point for 2017 to 6.6 percent, so Modi must have been facing popular pressure to spur economic growth by distending fiscal policy beyond what prudence would allow. Even as five states prepared to go to the polls beginning on February 4^th, the prime minister prudently wanted to demonstrate “strength in advance of national elections in 2019.”[6] Put another way, the pressure to allow the projected deficits to increase as a percent of GDP must have been enormous, yet fiscal discipline prevailed and even allowed for targeted priorities that would take due account of the value of fiscal stimulus. 

Democracy can be strong, meaning self-disciplined, yet there is no guarantee. As Thomas Jefferson and John Adams agreed when they were exchanging letters in retirement, an educated and virtuous citizenry is essential to the continuance of a viable republic whose house is in order. A $20 trillion government debt is indicative that at least one house is not in order, and the case of India demonstrates that the problem is not democracy itself.

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[1] Getta Anand, “Arun Jaitley, India’s Finance Chief, Aims to Spur Economy Hit by Cash Shortage,” The New York Times, February 1, 2017.

[2] Ibid.

[3] Ibid.

[4] Ibid.

[5] Ibid.

[6] Ibid.

Syriza Party Governing in Greece: Austerity and the E.U.

Clarion calls of confrontation roiled through the E.U. after the state election in Greece on January 25, 2015. Would the E.U., heavily dominated by its largest state, and the European Central Bank (ECB) accept a larger public deficit (i.e., more government spending to alleviate the austerity) and continue the cheap loans, or would Alexis Tsipras, the new Greek prime minister, have to choose between continued austerity and default? 

The full essay is at "Essays on the E.U. Political Economy," available at Amazon.

Behind the Lower 2014 U.S. Federal Budget Deficit: A New Default

The U.S. Government’s fiscal deficit of $483 billion for fiscal-year 2014 is the lowest since 2007.[1] At a preliminary 3% of GDP, that deficit is much better than the 2010 deficit, which came in at 10% of the GDP. To be sure, the American economy was larger in 2014. Also, the federal government’s overall fiscal improvement masks changes “behind the curtain” that may not be so palatable.

In 2014, the federal government’s revenues first crossed the $3 trillion level.[2] Had the spending level of 2007 been that of 2014, the government would have run a budget surplus for the year. To be sure, going back to pre-recession spending-levels would ignore the gradual upward slope of spending since at least 2000; based on this slope, and assuming the actual revenue, the deficit for 2014 would have been appreciably more than $483 billion.

So, is the spending side to be lauded or criticized? In large part, this depends on the person’s political ideology. The same goes for the revenue side. What I find interesting about the spending is that a steeper upward slope (from that from 2000-2007) in from the fourth quarter of 2008 (the credit freeze having occurred that September) to mid-2009 is followed by flat-lined spending through 2014.[3] Put another way, spending departed from the gradual upward-sloped pattern to reach a new plateau. That it held from 2009 to 2014 explains why the spending level in 2014 is lower than it would have been had the gradual upward-sloped pattern continued unabated. Sequestration worked.

Even so, the jump in spending in 2008/2009 pushed it to a new, higher plateau. Even though spending might have been higher, fixing spending around roughly $35 billion represents a higher mark for revenue to reach, even during recessions. In short, the fiscal “new normal” after the 2008 financial crisis and the ensuing recession involves higher spending and more revenue in absolute terms. An alternative might have been to spike spending during the recession then peg the spending after 2009 to the level it would have been consistent with the previous gradually-ascending slope. That amount would have been roughly $30 billion (rather than $35 billion), and the U.S. Government would have shown a slight surplus for 2014.

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[1] Josh Zumbrun, “Budget Deficit Reaches a Seven-Year Low,” The Wall Street Journal, January 14, 2015. The budget deficit for the calendar year came in at $488 billion.

[2] Ibid.

[3] Ibid.

Relaxing State Deficit Restrictions: Power-Grab by the European Commission

As the World Bank came out with its revised prediction of 1.1 percent economic growth for the E.U. (“eurozone”) in 2015, down from the earlier estimate of 1.8%,[1] the European Commission announced that it would allow states more leeway in meeting the federal requirement that state budget deficits be no more than 3 percent of their respective economic outputs. Lest this appear as a sign of political impotence, the “strings” demonstrate the opposite.

The full essay is at "Essays on the E.U. Political Economy."

Fiscal Responsibility in Alaska: On the Challenge of Falling Oil-Tax Revenue

With West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. benchmark oil price, at $46.07 on January 12, 2015, lawmakers in Alaska were getting nervous because the government was relying on oil-industry taxes to cover 89% of the government’s operating revenue.[1] At the time, the government had a $3.5 billion deficit in the $6.1 billion budget.  How the governor, Bill Walker, planned to deal with the shortfall can give us a glimpse of what fiscal responsibility might look like in government.

In spite of the huge deficit relative to the total budget, Walker was asking government agencies to reduce their respective budgets by only 5% to 8% for the coming fiscal year. To cover the rest, the governor planned to “dip heavily” into Alaska’s $14 billion in reserves.[2] Merely having reserves is itself fiscally responsible. In California, Gov. Jerry Brown had contributions to a “rainy day” fund as part of his budget even as the University of California clamored for $100 million more in funding—a request the governor rejected as exorbitant.

The fiscal responsibility goes even further in Alaska. The government was diverting only $300 million of the $6.76 billion in oil-tax revenues it expected to collect over the two-year period ending June 30, 2015 toward operating costs—the rest of the revenue going to trust funds, capital projects, and local governments.[3] The continued contributions to the trust funds strike me as particularly responsible, given the political temptation to skimp on them in order to obviate budget cuts of even 5 percent.

In short, Alaskan fiscal responsibility can be characterized as balanced, with budget cuts going along with tapping reserves and continued contributions to trust funds. A return to higher oil prices would signal attention to making up for the reserves’ depletions and adding still more to increase the reserves. In the long term, the reserves could reach a level at which the operating budget is funded entirely by the reserves’ investment revenue. With enough self-discipline to forge ahead with a sustained fiscal responsible policy, governing officials can make taxes obsolete.

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[1] Ana Campoy, Mark Peters, and Erica Phillips, “Energy-Heavy States Get a Crude Awakening,” The Wall Street Journal, January 13, 2015.

[2] Ibid.

[3] Ibid.

On the Credibility of the E.U.: Transfer Payments and State Deficits

In October of 2014, the prime minister of the E.U. state of Britain blatantly (and quite publically) refused to pay a “bill” that the E.U. Commission charged the state on account of upward revisions of its economic growth. “We won’t pay it,” David Cameron said defiantly into a microphone. Meanwhile, Jyrki Katainen, the E.U. commissioner for economic and monetary affairs, accepted the draft budgets of the states of France and Italy even though they violate the limit of 3% of GDP in the European Growth and Stability Pact. Those two states could face fines, however, and the commissioner also noted that the budgets would face strict scrutiny. I contend that these instances of tension between the state and federal levels speak volumes as to the attitude of state officials and likely their constituents toward the E.U. itself. The attitude does not bode well for the European Union as a system of public governance. 

The full essay is at "Essays on the E.U. Political Economy," available at Amazon.

Should the ECB Buy State Bonds and Encourage State Deficits?

In remarks at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, European Central Bank president Mario Draghi urged greater fiscal and monetary coordination to boost the E.U.’s economy. A ship cannot move along at full speed if all the sails are not coordinated so that each is poised at its optimal angle to the prevailing winds. So too, various policies in a political economy must all sail in the same direction for a full-sail recovery to really take off. Just as a sailing ship must avoid jagged pitfalls lurking in rocky waters, so too must policy makers; for it is all too easy in focusing on one point on the horizon to ignore or dismiss baleful downsides to the dominant policies.

At the foot of the Teton Mountains, there being no foothills, Draghi “called for explicit policy co-ordination between the [Eurozone’s] monetary guardian and [the states].”[1] Brandishing considerably less concern on inflation, he linked the ECB’s future purchases of state bonds (i.e., quantitative easing, or QE) to structural reforms, tax cuts, and more spending at the state level. 

At the time, E.U. law limited state budget deficits to 3% of gross domestic product. Pointing to the existing flexibility in that law, the central banker urged the state governors to “better address the weak recovery and to make room for the cost of needed structural reforms.”[2] I submit that the accent should be placed on the latter, as they would have more staying power. It is like the difference between consuming sugar (even in fruit) before running, and drinking a protein shake after lifting weights; both food elements are helpful, but only the protein becomes a part the body and can thus strengthen it for the future.

Quantitative easing can unfortunately impact an economy in both foreseen and unforeseen ways due to the intended artificially-low interest rates. The market-mechanism cannot but be distorted, with harsh byproducts free to silently ravage certain segments while others benefit without merit. The human brain is not so omniscient as to be able to fully anticipate and plug all the leaks that can arise from a systemic distortion in a macro-economy. That is to say, the system is so complex that a huge distortion using one macro policy tool can introduce significant systemic risk.

In the U.S., for example, low rates in the 1990s incentivized a housing bubble whose collapse in 2007 triggered the potentially catastrophic credit freeze and collapse of Lehman Brothers in September of 2008. The government bailout of GM, AIG, and Wall Street banks worsened the federal public debt. By 2014, that debt reached over $17 trillion. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve printed money far exceeding the meager growth of GDP by buying bonds to artificially lower interest rates to prompt a recovery.

With interest rates low, money flooded into stocks. “The market is in effect rigged because of the [low] interest rate,” Charles Biderman said on CNBC as the summer of 2014 was coming to an end.[3] A grinding ethical fault-line ran between the stocks increasing at 25% a year and the wages and salaries increasing at a mere 3 percent. Moreover, the middle and lower economic classes would doubtless feel the brunt of a collapse of the stock market due to irrational fear should rates be raised to counter the inflation from too many dollars chasing too few goods.

With borrowing money being so cheap at the low rates, government officials did not feel the normal market pressure to hem in the deficits. Corporate managements could borrow money cheaply to acquire or merge with other companies without being perhaps as discerning of the degree of compatibility and synergy as would be the case under naturally determined interest rates. In 2014 through August, more than $2 trillion in mergers and acquisitions were announced—an increase of 70 percent over the same period the year before.[4] While managers, stockholders, and lawyers make out like bandits on the deals, subordinate employees are left out of the largess and may even lose their jobs as the price of synergy.

As dark as the underside of quantitative easing is in pushing rates abnormally low, the most potentially harmful byproduct of Draghi’s plan concerns his intent to encourage the E.U.’s state governments to make greater use of the “existing flexibility” already in the federal law limiting state budget deficits to 3% of annual economic output. Even large states such as France and Germany had had trouble keeping within the law; states such as Greece, Spain, and even Italy carried so much debt that the systemic risk of default became a problem not just for the E.U., but for the global financial system as well. To encourage flexibility might be like giving money to an alcoholic standing outside a liquor store. The last thing state legislators need to hear is additional flexibility to tax less and spend more can be found in the fine print.

As an alternative, Draghi could have emphasized that the ECB would focus on assisting states with structural reforms both by lending its expertise and finding the right monetary incentives that would not distort the financial market in potentially unforeseen ways. Sticking to old ways is not necessarily the best route to getting structural changes capable of ushering in new ways.

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1. Claire Jones, Peter Spiegel, and Robin Harding, “Draghi Softens Tone on Austerity,” The Financial Times, August 22, 2014.

2. Ibid.

3. Charles Biderman, CNBC TV, August 28, 2104.

4. Trish Regan, “Has Fed Jumped the Shark?” USA Today, August 26, 2014.