Monday, August 5, 2024

The European Union Is Not a Trading Bloc

The European Union can be distinguished fundamentally from the previous European Economic Community in several ways, just as the Articles of Confederation can be distinguished on a fundamental level politically from the U.S. Constitution. Both Europe and America have made a qualitative jump, rather than merely as a matter of degree or further extent. In both cases, politically speaking, governmental sovereignty has been split between a union and state governments. Furthermore, in both cases, the domains of power being handled at the federal level have increased. In the case of the U.S., the coverage has expanded beyond Washington’s Continental Army. In the case of the E.U. even by 2024, the union’s coverage had come to extend well beyond a common market and trade policy to include non-economic domains of power, or competencies, too. In this regard, the E.U.'s federal level resembles a government.

After her reelection as President of the European Commission, the E.U.’s executive branch, in 2024, Ursula von der Leyen had some jobs to fill. Among them, each state was to designate one person to be a commissioner. It was up to the president to assign each person to an area, or domain, of power, which were hardly all economic in nature.

Among the dream jobs, besides Competition and Economic & Financial Affairs is Foreign and Security Policy, which is a traditional domain of a government. To be sure, the Competition Commissioner has considerable power “to block mergers, fine big companies, and ban state subsidies that distort markets—and, unlike most other E.U. commissioners, [the Competition Commissioner] doesn’t need to sign off decisions with governments or [the European Parliament].”[1] This represents a transfer of governmental sovereignty has taken effect from the state governments to that of the European Union (which also means that the E.U. had indeed a government of its own distinct from those of the states). Even though I suspect this is most true for economic portfolios, because a majority of E.U. competencies are subject to qualified majority voting instead of the principle of unanimity, the E.U.’s governmental sovereignty extends beyond the economic domain.

Among the rising stars of portfolios are two: Defense and Enlargement, rather than only Industry and Digital. That defense in particular was projected to be enhanced in Von der Leyen’s second administration supports the point that the E.U. was indeed thought of as a government, even if behind a veil of Euroskeptic (i.e., states’ rights) denial.

Among the golden oldie portfolios are climate, migration and justice, rather than just energy and trade. To be sure, on immigration there was still “a lack of real E.U. power.”[2] But “with concerns about media freedom and judicial independence” on the state level “on the rise,” the justice portfolio could “set a bold new direction in protecting the rule of law” within the union—power that can hardly be reduced to economics. Indeed, in enforcing justice within states rather than only at the federal level, the Justice Commissioner’s position itself supports the point that governmental sovereignty was in fact dual in the E.U. even in 2024.

That there were Commissioners of Agriculture and Budget also points to the E.U. being a government, as governments typically have their own budgets and have agriculture policies. Indeed, having territory, which the E.U. does indeed have, is a hallmark of being a government. The portfolios of Cohesion, Neighborhood, Home Affairs, Environment, Health, and Social Rights all contradict the supposition that the E.U. was economic in nature even as late as 2024. Social rights especially do not reduce to economics, but, rather, are fundamentally political in nature. Whether or not natural rights exist as John Locke argued, governments can institute and protect (as well as take away) social rights. The additional portfolios of Demography, Foresight, the Mediterranean, and “the E.U. way of life” all also go beyond the economic domain. So many portfolios at a high level in the Commission are not expressly or even mostly economic that it cannot be said that the E.U. was an economic organization at least by 2024 when Von der Leyen’s second term began with an emphasis on defense at the federal level, given Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Among the plethora of implications, the European Union cannot be characterized like the EEC was, as a single-issue organization; rather, in part because the federal competencies had grown broadly by 2024, we can speak of there being a federal government. There are of course other reasons why this is so in contradistinction to both the EEC and the American Articles of Confederation, both of which were solely international rather than a blend of national and international as evinced by the E.U. and U.S. Whereas in the U.S., that the U.S. Senate is founded on international principles has been commonly forgotten, most Europeans conveniently look over the fact that the European Parliament is founded on national rather than international principles.

Ideology is a great distorter, especially in politics and religion. To refer to the E.U. as an economic bloc is the epitome of intransigence in the face of political reality. That such a psychosis has been perpetuated by journalists in the service of ideologues, giving the brain sickness (recall Nietzsche’s use of the expression!) a patina of official legitimacy, is truly astonishing given the breadth of portfolios in the Commission alone.


1. Gerardo Fortuna and Jack Schickler, “Demogra-what? A Definitive Guide to European Commission Portfolios,” Euronews, August 8, 2024.
2. Ibid.

Sunday, August 4, 2024

Adding Anti-Trust to Monetary Policy: The Case of Groceries

Monetary inflation is a complex phenomenon. Not only can its causes be several; it can make it more difficult to distinguish immediate and medium-term economic conditions from more long term, or structural changes impacting our species economically.  Of the former, the relationship between inflation and whether the markets are competitive or oligarchic (or even monopolies) can be better understood, and this in term can put us in a better position to assess the impact of longer-term changes, such as those stemming from the huge increase in the population of human beings since before the industrial age. The price of food (i.e., groceries) is a case in point. Specifically, the impact from presumably temporary shocks during the Covid pandemic should be distinguished from the impact of oligopolistic markets in keeping prices high, and of the increase in human mouths more generally (and longer term) representing increased demand for foodstuff in on a relatively fixed planet.

In addition to a spike in the prices of raw materials, or, moreover, factors of production, and a growth in the money supply above the growth in GNP, the gradual consolidation of an industry from market competition to oligopoly and even a monopoly can increase inflation. The consolidation of the U.S. meat-producer market, for example, could be expected to result in higher meat prices at grocery stores. Similarly, barriers to entry facing discount grocery stores could result in food prices staying high even after a temporary increase in factor costs. In short, government action to keep markets competitive or return them to the discipline of competition should go side by side with monetary policy, lest it be assumed that inflation is primarily a result of the growth in the monetary supply. Otherwise, keeping interest rates higher than would otherwise be the case could unnecessarily put a damper on job growth.

In June, 2024, the U.S. official unemployment rate increased to 4.1 percent; the next month, that figure was even high, standing at 4.3 percent. This triggered the “Sahm rule,” according to which “a recession is imminent or underway if the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate rises by 0.5 percentage points or more relative to its prior 12 month low.”[1] The U.S. economy added 114,000, rather than the expected 175,000 jobs in July, and some people were nervous that a recession might be on the way.[2]

Accordingly, U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren wrote, “Fed Chair Powell made a serious mistake not cutting interest rates. . . . He’s been warned over and over again that waiting too long risks driving the economy into a ditch. The jobs data is flashing red.”[3] The Fed kept the interest rate in place in order to fight inflation even though 4.3 percent is above the acceptable range for unemployment according to the Fed. In fact, Austan Goolsbee, President of the Chicago Federal Reserve, said at the time that 4.3 percent was something the Fed “has to respond to” by cutting interest rates.[4] Besides, he added, the “trends show inflation coming down across the board, multiple months in a row” as the labor market was cooling.[5]

Anyone shopping in a grocery store, however, would beg to differ, however, as the rise in food prices during the Coronavirus pandemic had not come down after the shocks, which included shipping as well as hoarding, had ended following the pandemic. Meat prices in particular had stayed very high even though such levels would be expected to attract new suppliers (or more supply) in a competitive market. But the meat-producer industry had been consolidating so a few large companies could essentially dictate prices to grocery stores, a related industry that had itself become oligopolistic. That the discount chain, Aldi, was not in the San Francisco region of California, for example, even in 2024 while Safeway and Whole Foods kept prices high suggests that the competitive mechanism, which protects consumers from the excessive greed of producers unrestrained by market discipline, was not working, for the basic logic of market competition holds that higher prices (and profits) attracts new producers such that supply increases and prices fall rather than stay high unless the cost of a factor of production has increased and stayed high.

To be sure, limits to the supply of food (and the cost of fuel for shipping) could be expected to become more salient as the human population level continues to increase dramatically. Whereas the 20th century had begun with about 2 billion human beings on the planet, the 21st century mark stood at 6 billion; by just 2023, that number had increased to 8 billion. At some point, the Earth’s agricultural potential being relatively fixed, could be expected to run up against increased demand for food. The common experience of having to pay more for groceries during and even after the pandemic due to temporary shocks and the lack of competition that would otherwise increase supply and thus reduce prices could be just a taste of what humans could expect in the 22nd century.

That a species’ population can increase beyond its ability to feed itself was posited by Thomas Malthus (1766-1834) in An Essay on the Principle of Population, published in 1798. The theological significance alone was startling, as the possibility threw off the notion that God had designed Creation and so the existence of God could be inferred from the excellence of the design found in nature itself. Malthus also claimed that famine, war, or disease is nature’s means of naturally correcting a schizogenic (i.e., maximizing) population, and subjecting the creatures who are in God’s image to such hardship hardly seems like part of the design of an omnibenevolent deity.

Therefore, the mechanism of a competitive market assumes not only lower barriers to entry, but also the capacity for increased supply when prices are relatively high, and this second assumption may be increasingly untenable as our species continues to grow while the natural resources of Earth remain relatively fixed, allowing of course for efficiency gains from technological advances. At the very least, from this macro perspective, governments should not shy away from enacting and enforcing anti-trust mechanisms so prices reflect not only demand, but also whatever supply is possible, given the Earth’s natural resources, especially in terms of energy and food (and also housing). Moreover, concurrent and sustained increases in several industries oriented to human sustenance ought to be especially concerning regarding toll from both uncompetitive markets and our species’ growth.


1. Alicia Wallace et al, “Markets End the Day Sharply Lower . . . “ CNN.com, August 2, 2024.
2. David Goldman, “Elizabeth Warren: The Fed Made ‘a Serious Mistake,” CNN.com, August 2, 2024.
3. Ibid.
4. Ibid.
5. Ibid.