Wednesday, July 24, 2019

Beyond Fixing the U.S. Government's Debt

After a number of failed attempts over decades to solve a problem, it is natural that the problem itself would barely get mentioned, let alone any cure. I submit that the U.S. federal debt is a case in point. President Reagan made it an issue in 1980, and Congress has tried to mandate for itself automatic spending cuts and tax increases, but to no avail. The desire for instant gratification outstripped self-discipline. This could perhaps be said of the society generally. 
In anticipation of the “fiscal cliff” steep U.S. tax increases and budget cuts that were set to go into effect January 2013 for a decade, Moody’s Investor Service served notice to Americans and their federal government that the sequestration of $1 trillion over the ten years and the immediate end of the Bush Tax Cuts would mean a downgrade in the credit rating of the U.S. Government. The New York Times reported that the rating agency, like S&P before, “emphasized political dysfunction more than soaring government debt. The agency said that Washington must come to agreement to head off billions of dollars in simultaneous tax increases and spending cuts scheduled to begin in January—and to put the government on a sustainable fiscal trajectory. Only then would the United States keep its AAA rating.”[1] Moody’s pointed to the need for “specific policies that produce a stabilization and then [a] downward trend in the ratio of federal debt to G.D.P. over the medium term.”[2] 

Moody's Investor Services     (Reuters)
Significant reductions in spending over ten years, plus an immediate end of the tax-rate reductions that George W. Bush had signed into law, would presumably have produced a downward trend in the ratio of federal debt to G.D.P. over the medium as well as long term unless a recessionary impact would be such as to counter the effect from the sequestration and tax increases. Pressure would have built to exempt spending on unemployment compensation and other sustenance programs, while the tax revenue would have fallen short. In other words, the sequestration, had it been allowed, would not have been a sure thing in reducing the federal debt. 
As of June, 2019, the debt stood at over $22 trillion. The will in a democratic system to take corrective action can be so deficient that a serious problem can get much worse. Whereas the rating agencies were ready to downgrade the U.S. Government's credit rating when the debt stood at $16.7 trillion, no such warning went up six years later when the debt was substantially more and no hint of any sequestration was in the air. 
Ronald Reagan had made balancing the federal budget a salient part of his 1980 platform, though once in office he pushed for tax cuts and increases in defense spending that undercut prospects for a balanced budget. The experiment in whether cutting taxes could actually boost tax revenue due to more economic activity failed. In 2013, sequestration failed even to launch. It is no wonder that as the debt passed the $20 trillion mark, the political discourse had given up on a cure. That such a debt might be too big to be paid off, that the U.S. Government was de facto already out of reach, was never mentioned even in conversation. 


1. Jonathan Weisman, “Moody’s Warns That U.S. May Face Debt Downgrade,” The New York Times, September 12, 2012.
2. Ibid.

Corporations and Political Debate: Taxation & Regulation

Under U.S. law, the corporation is a legal person, whose wealth can constitute political speech protected by the first Amendment. It is no matter that the corporation is an artifice constructed by the state for economic purposes: to concentrate wealth in order to produce goods or provide services. That such an entity would lobby and spend money (or “speak”) for political purposes may from this standpoint seem strange, or out of place. To be sure, political influence can indeed help the bottom economic line, but is a corporation a political actor if the purpose is economic? 
Large corporations arguably tend to have a strong arm in Congress,  but if that arm is so strong that it dictates the law, even literally, then entities that are part of society are de facto standing as government for the whole. For some parts of something to control the whole is problematic because those parts will naturally put their own particular interests above those of the whole (e.g., society, or the people). 
Even a dominant role in setting the terms of the debate in the public media during a political campaign can sway or tilt the whole to favor the part. If sustained long enough, pro-business values can become salient in a society's culture. That deregulation could have come out as a major winner in the 2010 election following the financial crisis in 2008 is mind-boggling, and yet the scores of new Republican representatives in the U.S. House had precisely deregulation as one of their main objectives. That unregulated financial derivatives based on risky mortgages had almost brought the economy down two years before was strangely forgotten. The debate was not on whether banks that are too big to fail should be broken up. Instead, the public got to talk about whether the existing regulation on businesses in general should be discarded in favor of economic growth. Such is the power of self-interested money in setting the terms of debate at the societal level.
Accordingly, debate on whether the corporate statutory tax rate of 35% should be lowered never bothered with the inconvenient truth that the weighted effective corporate tax rate (taxes as a share of profits) was 27.1% in the U.S. in 2012, hence below the 27.7% average rate of O.E.C.D. members. The weighted average marginal tax rate on corporations in the U.S. was only 20.2 percent.[1] A U.S. Treasury Department report concluded that 82 percent of the corporate tax was borne by capital, while 18 percent was borne by labor. Either American society was tilted in favor of the interests of capital or the electorate was duped into the false narrative that raising the corporate rate would hurt labor. 
General Electric, the sixth largest corporation in the U.S., had profits of $14.2 billion in 2010 and yet the mammoth company did not have to pay any corporate income tax. Even so, the political mantra that large American corporations pay too much income tax resonates in the political culture. Moreover, taxes are inherently bad, or even theft. It is as if American society has had a blind spot concerning the nature of and need for public goods like roads and airports. The competitive market, excellent in allocating goods and services, so eclipses the value of even esteemed public goods. 
In short, where the corporate advertising and lobbying dollars have already had such a significant influence in shaping the values people hold dear, the very society can tilt in favor of its business sector such that its advantages become invisible to large segments of the electorate. The corporate realm lives under democracy's radar, and thus conveniently beyond the reach of real accountability. 

1. Bruce Bartlett, “Some Big Corporations Don’t Pay Taxes,Either,” The New York Times, September 18, 2012.