Tuesday, February 1, 2011

The Federal Reserve to Buy More U.S. T-Bills but No State Debt

According to The New York Times, “At their first meeting of the year, Federal Reserve policy makers voted unanimously … to continue the central bank’s controversial $600 billion plan to spur the recovery by buying government bonds.”[1] In other words, the central bank would continue to “print money” to buy up U.S. Government debt, allowing that government to go into more debt without putting pressure on the interest rate to go up (which would cost the government more in interest payments to bondholders).

Theoretically, the Federal Reserve can buy an unlimited amount of bonds because the central bank can create money. Of course, creating money relative to GNP growth can spark inflation, but the central bankers are not worries. “The Fed did note that commodity prices had risen, but cautioned that long-term inflation expectations had been stable and that measures of underlying inflation had continued to trend downward.” Even so, “skeptics fear that the bond-buying — which has the effect of further expanding the Fed’s already large balance sheet — could lead to destabilizing asset bubbles or touch off inflation.”[2] I contend that this is a rather narrow (though certainly valid) concern; equally or more troubling for the long term is the asymetry in the Fed’s treatment of debt issued by the U.S. Government and that of the state governments. 

For instance, in 2010 Illinois issued $16 billion in additional debt. Whereas the U.S.Government could fall back on the Federal Reserve, the latter has refused to purchase debt from states like Illinois. Aside from the unfairness inherent in the Federal Reserve’s proclivity, the asymetry subtly undercuts federalism. In other words, the U.S. Government having an unlimited ability to have its central bank purchase its debt gives that government still another edge over the state governments, which one can expect will be even more compromised in being able to check encroachments by the U.S. Government. The resulting enervation of federalism means that consolidation may reach us sooner rather than later, at the expense of our governments being able to act as mutual checks on eachother.

Another way of making this point is to charge that the Federal Reserve’s refusal to do for the state governments what the central bank is doing for the U.S. Government evinces a structural bias in our system of federalism. The lack of balance (and the underlying unfairness) ought to be of concern to the citizenry. The result may well be that the U.S. Government will be enabled to get into unsustainable debt such that the empire itself may one day collapse under its own weight at the center.

1. Sewell Chan, "Fed to Continue Bond Buying Program," The New York Times, January 26, 2011.
2. Ibid.

Sunday, January 30, 2011

Amid Record Bonuses Goldman Sachs Enabled Greek Debt

The person who has the gold makes the rules.  I suspect this is the operating mantra at Goldman Sachs even after the bank’s near-death experience (when Solomon Bros stock was taking a hit, Blankfein knew his bank could be next).  As it turns out, the bank was involved in enabling Greece to stealthily spend beyond its means. Just after Greece had been admitted to Europe’s monetary union, Goldman helped the government quietly borrow billions, people familiar with the transaction said. That deal, hidden from public view because it was treated as a currency trade rather than a loan, helped Athens to meet Europe’s deficit rules while continuing to spend beyond its means. Additionally, in late November, 2009— three months before Athens became the epicenter of global financial anxiety — a team from Goldman Sachs arrived in Athens with a very modern proposition for a government struggling to pay its bills, according to two people who were briefed on the meeting. The bankers, led by Goldman’s president, Gary D. Cohn, held out a financing instrument that would have pushed debt from Greece’s health care system far into the future, much as when strapped homeowners take out second mortgages to pay off their credit cards.[1]


The full essay is in Cases of Unethical Business, available in print and as an ebook at Amazon.com.  


1. Louise Story, Landon Thomas, Jr., and Nelson D. Schartz, “Wall St. Helped to Mask Debt Fueling Europe’s Crisis,” The New York Times, February 13, 2010.