Democracy and Over-Population in India: Foreign Direct Investment

How well can the democratic form of governance serve as a means by which a society is circumscribed, or restricted in some way? In other words, can self-government be used to enact self-discipline on the body politic itself? Adding another level to this question, can elected representatives be expected to go beyond fixes that are perceived societally as sufficient to redress the underlying causes of governmental, economic, or societal problems? Far from urging or implying the supremacy of non-democratic forms of government, such questions invite improvement in democracy itself. In this essay, I reflect on these questions using India’s industrial policy as a case study.

Faced with economic growth below 6 percent, a budget deficit expected to breach 6 percent of India’s GDP, a possible downgrade in the country’s credit rating to junk status, and the rupee hitting record lows, Sonia Gandhi, the head of the Congress Party, spoke for the first time in late 2012 in support of allowing foreign companies such as Wal-Mart into India. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and others had been urging her to embrace the reform. Appealing to Sonia Gandhi’s passion for social welfare programs, the prime minister told her that more foreign direct investment would be necessary to expand them. Most notably, the Congress Party boss was pushing a $5.6-billion food-security bill and a rural employment-guarantee program. According to the Wall Street Journal, there was already “high spending on subsidies” at the expense of “growth-generating capital projects.” In effect, the latter get “sub-contracted” in foreign direct investment.  Relatedly, the finance minister, P. Chidambaram, issued a plan to reduce the federal government’s deficit and sell stakes the government has in state-owned companies.

 

Singh and Gandhi at a rally. It is clear who's the boss.   AP

 

Lest Sonia Gandhi’s support be viewed as a panacea, other reforms, such as making it easier to acquire land, remained “stuck in the bureaucracy,” according to the Wall Street Journal. The government’s “mind-set is I will not fix the cause of the issue, I will put a Band-Aid on it,” Rahul Bahsin of Baring Private Equity Partners India said. Indeed, although Walmart would doubtless hire local labor both in the construction and retail-operations of the stores, that foreign-direct-investment alone would not be large enough to make a dent in the social welfare needs of India’s poor. Additionally, the company’s aversion to workers’ rights (not to mention unions) and the related low compensation and benefits for in-store employees could mean additional troubles for Sonia Gandhi as worker groups seek protection from the federal government.

 Moreover, with over a billion people at the time the policy was being considered, the prospect of employing all able-bodied people of working-age in India was undoubtedly a daunting task in the midst of a global recession following the financial crisis of 2008. It was not as though the Indian government could simply invite hundreds of millions of Indians into computer-science and engineering classes and then into high-tech ready-made jobs. Over-population could have been the long-standing underlying problem, or cause of the unemployment and related subsidies.

 The bureaucracy and coalition in-fighting, as well as the “Band-Aid” approach oriented to incremental additions in employment through FDI could be a reflection of India’s over-population—a more basic problem that eludes mere policy prescriptions increasing foreign-direct-investment. Especially if a given  over-populated area has a disproportionate number of unemployed people, tackling the underlying problem could be expected to relieve the pressure on policies such as foreign direct investment to make up the difference. Meanwhile, other symptoms, like global warming and food prices, would be redressed. The question may therefore be whether a democracy is a feasible venue for such “cause-oriented” legislation to be enacted.

 Whereas government officials in China did not have to worry about a democratic backlash from the government’s one-child policy in the late twentieth century, the case of India raises the question of whether a self-governed people can regulate their own society by democratic means. A democracy may be hard-pressed in putting into effect painful legislation to curb excesses such as over-population—literally to restrict rather than promote a basic sort of growth. The value put on that value alone since the mercantile days could give legislators an implicit mandate to foster rather than retard population growth.  Furthermore, the “Band-Aid” approach might be more in line with the workings of a democracy if apparent measures are sufficient to get one re-elected. One could point to the perennial “fixes” in the U.S. regarding entitlement programs and deficit-cutting as other examples, and to the efforts of the E.U. to bail-out heavily indebted states as yet another example. Elected representatives seem to prefer to take little bites, incrementally, rather than enact fundamental laws that are oriented to causes rather than symptoms.
In contrast to these questions, an uncritical approach to the spread of democracy around the world, such as potentially in the “Arab Spring,” could actually exacerbate global problems. If the species continues “un-self-regulated,” meaning more and more over-populated, nature will undoubtedly step in at some point and impose restraint (e.g., famine, climate, war, disease). It may be an open question whether we as a species can stave off such a verdict from Mother Nature. Ironically, our consensus form of government may lessen the odds.

 

Source:

Romit Guha and Rajesh Roy, “India’s Gandhi Now Backs Overhauls,” The Wall Street Journal, November 9, 2012.

Eleven Time Zones in Russia: A Problem of Consolidated Empire

As of 2011, Russia had 11 time zones, from the Polish border to near Alaska, a system so vast that a traveller could get a walloping case of jet lag from a domestic flight.  In 2009, Russia was considering shedding some of its time zones.  People running businesses in the far east were complaining because the regulators were typically in Moscow, which could be several hours behind.    The issue blossomed at the end of 2009 into an intense debate across the Russian Federation about how Russians saw themselves, about how the regions should relate to the center, and about how to address the age-old problem of creating a sense of unity in a diverse federation that had been consolidated politically.  In short, the issue concerned the challenges involved in a consolidated empire. 

The sheer amount of territory in an empire that is made up of republics that are on the scale of independent states or countries makes “one size fits all” from the center extremely difficult.  It might have been different when kingdoms and empires were smaller—such as the medieval sort (e.g. the Swiss confederation and the Netherlands—both empires on a medieval scale but states in modern terms).  For China, the US, the EU and Russia, the extent of geography is a limitation on how much centralized authority is possible.  The Chinese government maintains one time zone for China, when there could easily be four or five.  In the case of Russia, such consolidation would mean that people in some places would be getting up and having breakfast in the middle of the night!   Even reducing the number of zones could make it more difficult on some, given the short duration of daylight in the winter.   Consider, for example, the trouble of going to and from daylight savings time in the US and EU.  Eliminating a few time zones in Russia would be to act as though a few hours difference doesn’t matter much.  The far east may already be two hours off of the correct biological time—meaning the most fitting with the human biological clock. 

In the end, the problem is one of consolidating an empire-scale polity.  Given the inherent heterogenuity involved in such an expanse, there are limitations in what can be done centrally.  Moscow can’t simply issue an order and expect that every Russian city will be awake and thus able to reply immediately.  Resentment toward central control in such cases (i.e., empires) is quite natural.  Indeed, proposals to modify the time zones have stirred deep suspicions, especially in the Far East and Siberia, where people have long resented Moscow, much the way people in places like Idaho distrust the goings-on in Washington.  So the issue is not simply one of whether time zones should be adjusted.  The tensions come when an empire seeks an inordinate amount of centralized control—more than that which is consistent with natural differences.  A consolidated empire on the modern scale (i.e., early-modern kingdoms being the scale of the units) is an artificial construction.   The time zones, I submit, should be oriented to biological clocks, while the federal system is given greater weight (i.e., more autonomy for the republics and regions).  “We have to look at this from a biological standpoint, how it is going to affect health,” said Yekaterina Degtyareva, 27, a personnel manager who lives in Novosibirsk, the most populous city in Siberia, and often travels to the Far East and Moscow. “If it is going to be a centralized, so-called totalitarian decision, then nothing good will come of it.”

Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/07/world/europe/07zones.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=russia%20time&st=cse