Tuesday, August 8, 2017

Drug Companies as Feeding Machines: Don't Feed the Sharks

In 2008, drug companies raised the wholesale prices of brand-name prescription drugs by about 9 percent, according to industry analysts. That added more than $10 billion to the nation’s drug bill, which was on track to exceed $300 billion in 2009. By at least one analysis, this was the highest annual rate of inflation for drug prices since 1992. “When we have major legislation anticipated, we see a run-up in price increases,” says Stephen W. Schondelmeyer, a professor of pharmaceutical economics at the University of Minnesota.  A Harvard health economist, Joseph P. Newhouse, said he found a similar pattern of unusual price increases after Congress added drug benefits to Medicare a few years ago, giving tens of millions of older Americans federally subsidized drug insurance. Just as the program was taking effect in 2006, the drug industry raised prices by the widest margin in a half-dozen years.  “They try to maximize their profits,” Mr. Newhouse said. However, the drug companies claimed they were having to raise prices to maintain the profits necessary to invest in research and development of new drugs as the patents on many of their most popular drugs were set to expire in a few years. The drug makers were proudly citing the agreement they had reached with the White House and the Senate Finance Committee chairman to trim $8 billion a year — $80 billion over 10 years — from the nation’s drug bill by giving rebates to older Americans and the government. However, if realized, the price increases in 2009 would effectively cancel out the savings from at least the first year of the Senate Finance agreement. Moreover, some of the critics claimed that the surge in drug prices could change the dynamics of the entire 10-year deal. “It makes it much easier for the drug companies to pony up the $80 billion because they’ll be making more money,” said Steven D. Findlay, senior health care analyst with the advocacy group Consumers Union.
That the firms were trying to maximize their profits ought not be viewed as  new thing.  That is what they do.  To expect a shark not be be a feeding machine is at the very least highly unrealistic.  It is not fair to the shark that was designed to feed.  If a shark is able to feed, it will.  If a drug company is able to charge more for its products, it will.   It is interesting that the question of motive is deemed relevant.  I myself wonder whether the price increases are really motivated by the anticipated expirations of patents or the $80 billion to be paid as part of the health-care reform.  Can I trust the self-serving explanation of the firms in the face of the experts’ studies of historical price patterns before major pieces of legislation affecting the industry?  A shark will feed; we don’t ask about its motives.  Were a shark to have reasons, they would be whatever furthers its feeding. Whether it is lying would be irrelevant.  In fact, the normativity of truth-telling would not register, as it does not have a taste-element.   We project onto the shark when we presume a motive or that a normative judgment is pertinent.   If the shark can feed, it will.  It is a feeding machine. Social responsibility does not make sense to a feeding machine or to those humans in their capacities in running the machine. For them, it is a technical matter. To realize the wider social goals through business, the wider goals must be put in line with the feeding incentives. As the umpire and protector of the chessboard, the government can structure the rules of the game--and there must be rules for any game--such that the incentives match. The question is perhaps whether the rules might function as nets and suffocate the sharks, or channel them as mighty yet dangerous swimmers.
If we as self-governing citizens do not want the sharks to feed on a given plant, we could make it very costly for them to do so. Simply forbidding them is apt to be disobeyed, and thus costly to enforce. Telling them they shouldn’t feed on something tasty simply does not make sense to a shark. They will be like cats circling an open can of tuna, constantly trying to figure a way around the artificial barrior.  As an alternative, leaving the matter to the sharks themselves to regulate would be like having the wolves police the hen house. In terms of social responsibility, getting mad at a shark for having what we presume is the wrong motive is utterly futile.  We tend to assume or project motives on business managers other than simply to feed. If we want to delimit the feeding, we might look into how the tank we have designed permits or even encourages over-feeding. That is to say, we can change the tank. 
We can’t very well change the shark without making it no longer a shark.  We could pass legislation outlawing profits, then we would not have companies, and they produce our products that we consume.  We want some feeding.  We are convinced that we need some feeding in the tank.  We just don't want such feeding that compromises the tank (or us). The question is how to prevent over-feeding at our expense. Presuming the shark will respond to our charges of its immoral motive is a non-starter, but we can redesign the tank, which the shark must take as a required constraint. 
For example, we can apply anti-trust law such that any sharks that become too big for the tank get chopped up and become shark-food.  We can install steel bars in the tank to limit where the sharks can feed (i.e., maximum prices or profits).   That the drug companies are price-setters rather than takers strongly points to the need for anti-trust enforcement.  Of course, if the sharks are threatening to eat our representatives, we can’t count on our politicians to give us straight talk on significant reform of the tank any time soon.  Rather, they will try to convince us that they have sufficiently modified its structure, when in fact they are enabling the sharks to continue over-feeding.  Perhaps the officials are sharks themselves.  Sharks, whether in business or government, policing a tank of sharks while the rest of us wonder why the over-feeding goes on and on is simply a recipe to get gouged, or bitten.

Source:

Duff Wilson, "Drug Makers Raise Prices in Face of Health Care Reform," The New York Times, November 15, 2009.

Van Rompuy as the European Council's First Extended-Term President

“In a sense, Europe seemed to be living down to expectations. Earlier, the foreign minister of Sweden, Carl Bildt, warned against a 'minimalist solution' that would reduce the European Union’s 'opportunity to have a clear voice in the world.'"  Olivier Ferrand, president of Terra Nova, a center-left research institute in France, said, “It is quite astounding. . . . It is jaw-dropping. It is the end of ambition for the E.U. — really disappointing.”

I think these are rather extreme positions on the selection of Herman Van Rompuy on November 19, 2009 as the first non-rotated president of the European Council.  Moreover, I don’t think the E.U. is going the way of the dinasaur just because Van Rompuy was not well known at the time of his selection.  He has written six books, is a writer of Japanese poems, has consensus-skills, and seems humble enough.  Would popular election have yielded a better candidate? As the election would have been E.U.-wide, it is doubtful that a high proportion of the voters would have been sufficiently familiar with him to make an informed decision. 


The New York Times continues, “The deal that produced the two choices emerged as a result of backroom negotiations among leaders jockeying for future and more important economic portfolios that could be more powerful in the enlarged European Union, which is still more of an economic union than a political one and looks to remain so.”  However, the E.U. includes a popularly-elected Parliament. Is a parliament not political? Is a parliament not a government body?  Perhaps, moreover, we should simply say that transfers of sovereignty are now economic in nature.

One might ask: who would have a vested interest in perpetrating such a subterfuge wherein governmental institutions, whether intergovernmental (e.g., the European Council) or national (e.g., the E.U. Parliament) are to be portrayed as solely economic in nature? According to The New York Times,  “The leaders of Europe’s most powerful countries, France and Germany, did not want to be overshadowed. Nor apparently did their foreign ministers.”   After the European Council elected Van Rompuy, Gordon Brown, the then-current British Prime Minister who had been pushing for Tony Blair (his precursor), told reporters that the posts are only ceremonial anyway since the state governments are still in control.  However, is Van Rompuy's role in presiding over the European Council merely for show? Is there not power in chairing a political institution? Furthermore, are the heads of the state governments in charge of the E.U. Commission, the E.U. Parliament, and the European Court of Justice? Even within the European Council where the governors of the states sit, qualified majority voting on most issues means that any given state government is not in control. We can conclude that E.U. level officials are not mere gloss on a window, and that the member states have indeed transferred some of their governmental sovereignty to the E.U. Government. Lest is be thought otherwise--that the E.U. does not have a government, there is a saying in English: If it quacks like a duck, walks like a duck, and swims like a duck, odds are it is a duck.  It might be useful to ask why it is in the interest of some that the obvious conclusion be withheld.

My only caveat concerning the selection of Van Rompuy is that the consensus maker was not the sort to make transparent the "duck" subterfuge and denial, which had gone unchecked at the expense of greater European integration. In other words, the E.U. needs its own leaders who can garnish attention for the E.U. itself (i.e., apart from its state governments) because if integration falters, the danger will be dissolution unless or until more governmental sovereignty is transferred to the E.U. As for Van Rompuy's low name recognition outside Belgium at the time of his selection, let’s not forget that few, if any, presidents of the U.S. Senate (the Vice President of the U.S.) have been known at the beginning of their respective terms. Of course, outside of breaking tie votes, the president of the U.S. Senate (whose members are the member states of the union) is more ceremonial than is the president of the European Council.  In fact, senators regularly stand in for the presiding officer when the U.S. Senate is in session, whereas Van Rompuy himself presides over sessions of the European Council.  Also, the European Council is possibly more powerful among E.U. governmental institutions than the U.S. Senate is in the U.S. This is probably so because the state governments in the E.U. have more power at the E.U. level than the American state governments do in the U.S. This could explain why Van Rompuy's position, the President of the European Council, is powerful (because the Council he chairs is powerful) even if Van Rompuy had been an unknown outside of Belgium and was not an attention-getter in the media (e.g., unlike Tony Blair).

Source:

Stephen Castle and Steven Erlanger, "Low-Profile Leaders Chosen for Top European Posts," The New York Times, November 19, 2009.

Goldman Sachs: Working It

Goldman Sachs’ (GS) board considered buying AIG in late June, 2008, so GS could use AIG’s premium float for capital (rather than becoming a bank holding company and using deposits to fund trades or as collateral for leveraged trading).  Strangely, GS’s board didn’t realize that another part of GS was questioning the “mark to market” valuations that AIG was making on its swaps.  Also, AIG had revised its November and December 2007 losses from $1 billion to $5 billion.  GS and AIG had the same public accountant (Price), which GS was using to get AIG to down-value the value of its assets. On that week in September, 2008, when Lehman went under, JP Morgan and GS were working to put together a loan of $50 billion to cover AIG’s deepening hole  At the same time, the two banks were demanding new collateral payments from AIG, pushing the insurance giant deeper into its hole.  The Fed and AIG wondered if the fees and interest rate being set by the two banks for themselves and other contributing banks wasn’t essentially stealing the company.

As it turned out, AIG received funding from the Federal Reserve in exchange for the government taking warrants on a 79.9% ownership of the company.  Goldman had bought $20 billion of insurance from AIG and received as much as $13 billion from AIG when the Fed funded AIG with $90 billion.  The counterparties were paid in full, rather than the sixty cents on the dollar that AIG negotiators had been pressing. Even though GS was hedged because it had purchased credit default swaps in case AIG were to default, one has to ask whether Blankfein at GS used Paulson to have the government pay GS through AIG.  Blankfein claims that his bank would not have gone under had AIG imploded, but surely GS relies on there being a financial market. Also, when the Fed essentially took over AIG, Paulson wanted to appoint a new CEO.  Paulson was of course an ex-CEO of GS.  Paulson had one of his advisors, also a GS alum, look at candidates.  The aid favored Ed Liddy, who was on GS’s board.   GS would be running AIG.  Hence, the insurance giant would not run interferance on the $13 billion going to GS.

Besides these conflicts of interest, Goldman trades securities for big firms and pension funds. It also acts as adviser to many of the companies whose securities it trades.   In other words, the problem is in its core business. So a person could be excused for wincing at Lloyd Blankfein’s statement that his bank is performing not only a social function in providing capital to firms so they can expand, but is “doing God’s work” as well.   John D. Rockefeller used the same expression in regard to his Standard Oil monopoly that offered its remaining competitors the choice to be bought up or drowned.  According to Rockefeller, Standard Oil was Noah’s Ark, saving the oil refining industry from destructive competition.   So what if the uncooperative were put under?  They deserved it. Besides, the industry would be saved.  In this regard, the monopolist viewed himself as a Christ figure.   Are the golden boys the incarnation of this figure?   It goes without saying, but I will anyway, that Blankfein has no misgivings in paying (and being paid) record bonuses in 2009.    The presumptuousness of those bankers aside, Jefferson’s dictum that a national bank would be more dangerous than a standing army to democracy seems apt.  We, the American citizens, have an amazing ability not to see things, and then to tacitly enable that which is in actuality hardly a savior.


Monday, August 7, 2017

The U.S. Goes after Executives at Volkswagen: A Deterrent?

Oliver Schmidt, a Volkswagen executive who had been head of the company’s environmental and engineering center in Michigan, pleaded guilty on August 4, 2017 to two federal charges in the United States: conspiracy to defraud the federal government and violating the Clean Air Act. He “admitted conspiring with other Volkswagen employees to mislead and defraud the United States in 2015 by failing to disclose that thousands of diesel cars were rigged to evade detection of excess emissions levels. He also admitted filing fraudulent emissions reports to regulators.”[1] He faced possible fines and time in prison. James Liang, another of the company’s executives who had been charged, had already pleaded guilty to charges of conspiracy and violating the Clean Air Act. The other executives charged were in the E.U. state of Germany, which does not extradite its residents. Given the power of the auto industry in that state, such accountability applied to executives for the same fraud in the E.U. may have been too difficult to achieve. Nevertheless, for the sake of business ethics alone, prosecuting executives personally rather than just companies is in general important as a deterrent.
Prior to Schmidt’s admission of guilt, Volkswagen had agreed to pay $4.3 billion in civil and criminal penalties, which in turn were part of $22 billion in settlements and fines in connection with “the cheating scandal and the sale of vehicles that emit harmful levels of pollution.”[2] Yet with revenues of $228.5 billion in 2016, the question of whether 10% of one year’s revenues for a company that had nearly $431 billion in assets at the end of that year could reasonably be expected to act as a deterrent.[3] I submit that prison time for executives is the way to get not only their attention, but that of the company itself, including its current and future management personnel. As wealthy as executives typically are, not even fining them would be of a sufficient deterrent; their quality of life must be significantly thwarted for a significant amount of time for the message to get through. Given the massive lapses in holding Wall Street executives accountable for their role in producing and/or selling sub-prime mortgage-based bonds and the high probability that resumed excessive risk-taking held secret even from clients and stockholders could trigger yet another financial crisis, the U.S. Justice Department was on a prudent path in going after the executives at Volkswagen rather than only the legal person (i.e., the company itself). Yet a pattern of prosecuting executives, even of financial institutions based in the U.S., would be necessary for the deterrent to work going forward.



[1] Bill Vlasic, “Volkswagen Executive Pleads Guilty in Diesel Emissions Case,” The New York Times, August 4, 2017.
[2] Ibid.
[3] Volkswagen’s 2016 financial statements

Sunday, August 6, 2017

When 4.3% Is below Full Employment

CNN reported that the U.S. economy added “a strong 209,000 jobs” in July of 2017, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.3% to match a 16-year low. Unemployment had peaked at 10% in 2010, after the financial crisis of 2008. CNN cited many economists as saying that the 4.3% rate was “at or near” full employment, meaning that the rate would not go down to a significant degree.[1] Yet even within CNN’s own reporting, we can find reason to doubt this claim.
The first indication is the mention of wage growth being sluggish. “Wages grew only 2.5% in July compared with a year earlier.”[2] Chris Gaffney, president of Everbank World Markets, noted at the time that questions remained about when a spike in wages would be seen. Were full employment at hand, shortages in the supply of labor would have been pushing the wages up appreciably.
The explanation lies in CNN’s reporting of a statement by Steve Rick, chief economist at CUNA Mutual, an insurance company. “There’s still lots of people coming back into the labor market, looking for jobs.”[3] With a significant number of people deciding to resume looking for jobs, the official unemployment rate of 4.3% understated the actual unemployment numbers, which includes people no longer filing for unemployment compensation or even simply applying for jobs. In other words, the actual unemployment rate was significantly higher, so even if 4.3% would have corresponded to full employment, the U.S. was not at full employment. Hence, wages were not spiking.
A problem with CNN erroneously reporting full employment involves the resultant impression by the American people and the elected representatives that nothing further in terms of public policy was needed to get the structurally unemployed back to work. Put another way, relying on the official unemployment rate risks settling for economies that have written off the long-term unemployed.



[1] Patrick Gillespie, “Milestone for Trump: 1 Million New Jobs in Six Months,” CNN, August 4, 2017.
[2] Ibid.
[3] Ibid.