Sunday, July 30, 2017

The Spanish Recovery: On the Roles of Budget Constraints and Exports

In 2007, the E.U. state of Spain “was hopelessly addicted to a credit-fueled construction boom that produced a shattering bust, leaving banks collapsing in the face of bad loans.”[1] A decade later, the state’s economy was “expanding at around 3 percent” over the previous year, “producing goods for export, generating jobs,” and pointing to possible E.U.-wide economic recovery.[2] The Spanish economy had returned to its pre-crisis size, according to the state’s government, yet the economy had not yet solidified a firm foundation and unemployment was still stubbornly high.

Although the credit-based building boom was doubtlessly not sustainable and fraught with risk, the ensuing budget austerity mandated at the federal level inhibited the state’s government from spending more money “on infrastructure projects to generate jobs.”[3] Contracting government spending exacerbates rather than ameliorates an economic downturn, even if deficits go up. The federal law on state deficits being at or below 3.5% of a state’s GDP did not have enough flexibility for the Spanish government to be able to minimize the period of the downturn. 

Hence, The New York Times concluded at the time of the recovery, “Spain’s resurgence is less cause for celebration than a grim reminder of how long it took.”[4] That is to say, the steep unemployment level, which had reached 25 percent, need not have endured as long as it did. Even in 2017, the unemployment rate remained above 18 percent (near 39 percent for the state’s youth).[5] 

It is difficult, therefore, to see even a return to the size of the economy before the debt-crisis as a recovery. To be sure, exports had grown “to close to one-third from about one-fourth of the economy,” and such an economic engine is clearly more stable than an over-leveraged construction-led economy.[6] An economy fueled by consumption-buying from within would be more stable still, however, and the stubbornly high unemployment rate attests to why such a solid foundation had not yet materialized. Even though the large SEAT auto-factory put 3.3 billion (about $3.8 billion) of new machinery into the operations, relying on one company for the surge in exports is not as solid as a diversified export-base.

To be sure, the increasing tax revenue in the state, albeit very modestly, enabled more money to flow back into the economy. Work on the long-planned expansion of the Barcelona subway system, a €6.8 billion project, had resumed. Yet such an infusion was needed especially during the crisis and in the ensuing years of extremely high unemployment.  The inflexible federal strictures of budget discipline did not allow for such counter-cyclical measures even in a rather extreme cyclical downturn.

Related: See Essays on the E.U. Political Economy, available in print and as an ebook at Amazon.com.


[1] Peter S. Goodman, “Spain’s Long Economic Nightmare Is Finally Over,” The New York Times, July 28, 2017.
[2] Ibid.
[3] Ibid.
[4] Ibid.
[5] Ibid.
[6] Ibid.